Declinul populației României. Două scenarii până la mijlocul secolului [Population Decline in Romania. Two Scenarios by Mid-Century]

2014 is the 25th year of population decline in Romania fed by natural decrease and, mostly, by negative net international migration. All prospects from national and international sources (UNPD-United Nations Population Division, Eurostat) outline higher rate of decline during the next decades without a recovery in level of total fertility rate, stabilized at 1.3 children per woman since mid-1990. The purpose of the paper is to compare the future potential developments in Romanian population using a double-face prospect: the usual resident population and the legal (permanent residence) population. The huge external labor migration of Romanians to EU developed countries is estimated at 2.4 millions persons, not counted in resident population bur included in legal population. Assuming continuing future reduction of mortality by age and progress in life expectancy, the conservation of the total fertility rate at 1.3 children per woman will dramatically increase the speed and the level of population decline by 2050. The deterioration of the age structure, the level of birth and death rate and the size of annual natural decrease, would stand out a population with exhausting self recovery mechanisms and internal change-resource. Following the results in the Constant Fertility Variant of the 2012 Revision of UNPD Prospects, the Romanian decline would not be an exception among the EU28 Member States, but it will be the most dramatic.

Keywords: population decline, ageing, old dependency ratio, international migration, depopulation