Câţi pensionari ar putea avea România până în anul 2030? [How Many Pensioners Could Romania Have by 2030?]

The study is an attempt to project the number of pensioners in Romania by age and sex from 2010 to 2030. The pensioners included in projection are: three categories of state social insurance pensioners – for age limit, for invalidity and early retirement, and the farmer pensioners. Altogether they represent 86% of the Romanian pensioners. The farmer pensioners compose a closed population, the annual entries being insignificant for a prospective approach extended on 20 years and natural exits (by mortality) only have been estimated by sex and age. For the state social insurance pensioners the method used is an adaptation of the cohort component method of projecting a population by sex and age. Entry rates by sex and birth cohort/age reached during the year have been computed for 2009 and the assumption of constant entry rates was adopted. These rates have been applied to projected population by age and sex 2010-2030. One of the main purposes of the study is to show how the strong past variations of Romanian birth rate will affect the number of people reaching the retirement ages during the period 2010-2030. The results are fully in line with expectation. The assumption of constant entry rates is critically examined in the light of strong changes the labor market has faced after 1990: unemployment, very high international labor migration and large employment in informal economy.

Keywords: state social insurance and farmer pensioners, entry rate to pension, population projection, pensioners’ projection, natural exits, ageing.